Inside the Market’s roundup of some of today’s key analyst actions
A “material” increase in gold and silver prices is likely to translate to higher free cash flow and “trending balance sheet improvements” for Canadian precious metals companies in the second quarter, according to equity analysts at National Bank Financial.
“Consensus estimates remain fluid, thus modest differentials vs. NBF may be explained, while larger gaps are a source for our conviction beats/misses,” they said. “At the time of writing, we have conviction in Agnico Eagle , Dundee Precious , Lundin Gold and MAG Silver beating Bloomberg consensus Adj. EPS estimates, while we model Allied Gold , Centerra , Endeavour Mining and OceanaGold below consensus. Details behind our conviction calls are presented later in this report.
“The company recently completed the IPO of 20 per cent of Didipio on the Philippine Stock Exchange, with proceeds being used to pay down outstanding debt. OceanaGold expected to move into a net cash position by the end of Q2, which aligns well with our estimates.”Analyst Shane Nagle: “Osisko Gold Royalties maintains an attractive near-term growth outlook with three- and five-year growth CAGR’s of 6.2 per cent and 5.2 per cent, respectively.
Mr. Poirier now sees sentiment around the transportation market “coming into the quarter too hot,” pointing to the probability of a September rate cut and the increasing likelihood of a second Trump presidency. “TFII is trading at 9.5 times our 2025 EBITDA and 17.8x our EPS, higher than the five-year +1 standard deviation levels of 9.0 times and 16.8 times,” he said. “It is also trading in line with its blended peer multiple of 9.8 times EV/FY2 EBITDA. Increasing our exit valuation multiples to 10 times EV/EBITDA and 19 times P/E, we calculate a potential return of only 1.8 per cent , which is less compelling from a risk-reward standpoint, in our view.
“Integrating higher competitive pressures and seasonality into our Certarus estimates for Q2/Q3, with contributions reduced by US$15-million on a run rate basis, we forecast a 2025 AFFO yield of 11 per cent and free cash flow after capex and dividends of $25-million available for debt repayment. As such, we forecast 2025 D/EBITDA of 3.9 times as we await further clarity on SPB’s strategy to meet its longer-term target of 3.0 times within three years.
Target Gold Average Consensus Times Rating Cae Cowen Dundee Labrador
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