Neil Dutta, Renaissance Macro Research head of economics, joins Josh Schafer and Madison Mills on Market Domination Overtime to discuss his stance that the...
on Market Domination Overtime to discuss his stance that the Federal Reserve should deliver two 50 basis point cuts to end 2024.
Dutta notes that for the upcoming jobs report, “you have a lot of potential distortions,” given the ongoing port strike and the impact of Hurricane Helene. He says, “I think that the optics of not doing something big after a very weak number would be very challenging for them to communicate.”Well, the fed is expected to cut interest rates two more times this year, the size of those cuts remain uncertain.
I mean, if you, I think the two most important data points that have come out in the last two weeks is first the conference board labor differential where consumers being surveyed are telling you that it's increasingly difficult to find a job. So spread evenly in November and December, that means nothing because the forecasts that the fed puts out are conditional.I mean, how would that have worked out?So uh estimates are conditional, the forecasts are conditional and uh conditions can change.
So I think it's important to think about inflation as a process and it is a process outside of commodities and the fact that unit labor costs are so low uh really begs the question as to where the inflation is going to come from. Uh, so I do, I think like anything, if you're like a politician in politics, they talk about how, if you're explaining you're losing, I mean, in some respects that's true of the fed chair too.
But, um, you know, I, I do think that this is a, a fed that is not locked in, uh, it's a fed that's reactive to the data and if the data worsen, um, then I think they're gonna get aggressive and probably take out some insurance, uh going into the end of the year, uh, sort of not taking any chances.Um because at that point, I mean, you've basically seen several months now in a row of very weak employment data.
Neil Dutta Federal Reserve Basis Point Market Domination Josh Schafer
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