We sorted American voters into 380,000 distinct groups to see how the presidential election would play out if it was held today
think that everything about this year’s presidential election has changed over the past month. With coronavirus sweeping the country, President Donald Trump suggesting that Americans might want to disinfect their veins and Joe Biden going underground, such an assumption would appear reasonable.
This method is not unlike the one used by Simulmatics Corporation, which in 1960 fed a primitive computer decades’ worth of polls from George Gallup and Elmer Roper to advise Kennedy on a winning strategy. The scientists behind Simulmatics made predictions for 480 types of voters. Based on data about nearly 9,000 voters collected by YouGov in March and April, we have made predictions for over 380,000 types, one for each combination of nine different demographic and geographical factors.
That is despite Mr Biden faring relatively poorly with non-white voters and with younger ones. YouGov’s data suggest that African-Americans favour Mr Biden over Mr Trump by a 72-percentage-point margin. That sounds impressive—yet Mrs Clinton won the same group by 80 points. Hispanics, too, have shifted away from the Democrats. Whereas Mrs Clinton won them by 38 points, they now say they will vote for Mr Biden by 28.
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