The latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) and initial jobless claims data both came in hotter than expected, highlighting ongoing inflationary pressures and some...
The latest Consumer Price Index and initial jobless claims data both came in hotter than expected, highlighting ongoing inflationary pressures and some weakness in the labor market .
"But I don't see any signs of a reacceleration. And now that we've got a stronger jobs report, we think it supports that base case of the soft landing and might be able to talk about it in the past tense," he adds. He notes that the biggest risk ahead is a recession, which he believes is about a 30% chance at this juncture.Not necessarily economically but also sort of in the markets and its perception of that soft landing?
Yeah, I think it looks through because as you point out, Josh, they, um uh you've got a lot of storm impacts there.But other than that, it's uh it really focused, the jump came from North Carolina, South Carolina places hit by that first storm.But when we look at the, the broad scope, uh non seasonally adjusted data, the continuing claims rate, the number of people who are collecting is right on target with where it was last year.
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