If Democratic candidate Dan McCready wins the North Carolina special election, it will invite comparisons to the fateful Republican upset in Pennsylvania 28 years ago.
The last time a president was denied a second term, the omen came a full year before Election Day.
Enfeebled politically and by a worsening economy, Bush would end up losing both Pennsylvania and the presidency in the 1992 election. The White House, obviously, will be satisfied with any kind of victory for Bishop, even if it's a close one. In addition, in the wake of the ballot fraud drama and after years of local Republican infighting, Trump and his allies will have some mitigating factors to point to if their candidate's performance is shaky.
In that context, the Pennsylvania special election was clarifying. Thornburgh was a member of Bush's Cabinet — serving as his attorney general — and he was broadly popular in the state after two terms as governor. His opponent, Democrat Harris Wofford, a JFK-era civil rights veteran and former college president, was well-regarded in elite circles but little-known statewide. It looked like a gigantic mismatch, and initial polls confirmed that Wofford was far behind.
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