NBA predictions, picks, and odds for the Golden State Warriors at Dallas Mavericks on 4-5. NBA best bets and same-game parlay analysis.
Luka Doncic has been remarkably consistent at stuffing the box score, and our NBA picks think several matchup factors will set him up for more when the Mavericks host the Warriors tonight.
But in this case, Doncic is somewhat immunized from that drop off. Doncic creates plenty of open threes of course, but he’s also one of the most prolific and effective guys in the NBA when it comes to hitting the roll man right at the basket for a layup or a dunk. , in turn, is one of the NBA’s best finishers, scoring 83% of his looks around the rim per Cleaning the Glass and shooting there almost exclusively.
The options without Wiggins, or a limited version of him, are not as enticing. Jonathan Kuminga is already sidelined with a knee issue. Draymond Green can guard Luka, but then they have nobody to show help when Doncic turns the corner. Gary Payton II is strong enough, but simply doesn’t have the size, and Doncic overwhelmed him easily when they briefly matched up on Tuesday night.
As both teams are on a back-to-back, this game could become sloppy at points. That typically means lower shooting percentages and more boards up for grabs. The Warriors' best players are downright ancient in NBA terms, and that makes quick turnarounds much harder on the body. Doncic should have the edge on 50/50 balls.
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