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Amid a merger boom driven by a wave of megadeals that kicked off this spring, a worrisome third quarter lull is raising questions about how long the momentum can last.
driven by a wave of megadeals that kicked off this spring. But a worrisome third quarter lull is raising questions about how long the momentum can last.
Global mergers and acquisitions activity slowed sharply in the third quarter from the second, according to Mergermarket data. In the US, where the downshift was even worse, third quarter M&A activity fell by nearly half to $535 billion.2026 is still on pace for a record year in worldwide M&A deals by dollar value, according to Mergermarket data.
It's"natural to have a slowdown as the market digests those transactions," Guthrie said, adding that historically the third quarter often lulls while bankers take vacation.surged to multidecade highs "While some of the investment banking slowdown can be attributed to a long summer … an unhappy bond market implies a deeper freeze in future activity," UBS analyst Erika Najarian wrote earlier this week. The outlook for mergers and other dealmaking activities will be in focus for investors later this month when Wall Street's biggest banks begin reporting quarterly earnings.
Some analysts remain optimistic that a long-awaited rebound in private equity exits will help sustain the merger cycle.
"We are still believers in the notion that there should be an acceleration of M&A activity," Oppenheimer analyst Chris Kotowski said in a Friday note. joining companies like Holtec Nuclear and Bamboo Insurance, citing"market conditions" for the retreat from their planned public debuts. remains concentrated in midsize businesses, where elevated interest rates make transactions tougher to justify, PwC's US and Mexico deals lead Kevin Desai said. Overall,"our pipeline and our volume is up considerably year-over-year," Desai told Yahoo Finance.
"We're doing more diligence, we're doing more pre-deal services, but the number of failed deals continues to mount up," he added. David Hollerith covers a range of developments throughout the financial sector, from Wall Street to banking and asset management to crypto and fintech. Email him at david.hollerith@yahoofinance.com. Follow him on X at @DsHollers.
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