Leading economists say the threat of recession has passed, but there's a lot of reasons to think the worst is yet to come.
is starting to rise — 7.2% of credit-card debt is now considered delinquent, up from just over 4% in 2021. In the aftermath of the Great Recession, that number reached as high as about 14%. Auto loan and mortgage delinquencies are also rising.
"People get very excited about CPI and say, 'Hey, CPI went up only 0.1% over the past month and it's only up 3% over the past year,'" Essaye said. "Well, think about that in practical terms. If I go to buy my kids a bag of Skittles, in 2019 it cost $0.75. Now it costs $1.50. Am I supposed to get excited because next year it costs $1.55?"Piper Sandler's Kantrowitz pointed to another worry spot: manufacturing.
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