Wall Street economists are growing more upbeat about US economic growth while acknowledging that it may require interest rates to stay higher for longer, in line with recent projections by the Federal Reserve.
Gross domestic product is expected to advance at an annualized 3% rate in the third quarter, reflecting stronger consumer spending and private investment, according to the latest Bloomberg monthly survey of economists. That compares to the 1.8% pace projected in August and is six times the growth rate forecast at the start of the quarter.
However, their projections for the core measure that strips out food and energy prices were largely unchanged. Two-thirds of the 74 economists surveyed by Bloomberg submitted their responses after the Fed’s policy meeting last week, in which the central bank held interest rates steady but signaled another hike is possible. Officials also forecast fewer rate cuts than previously anticipated in 2024, which economists mirrored in the survey.“We expect a mild recession to unfold” in the first half of 2024, said Kathy Bostjancic, chief economist at Nationwide Life Insurance Co.
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