'We have a strong belief that the production and distribution of media content will be permanently changed by this crisis,' analyst Michael Nathanson says
"The production and distribution of media content will be permanently changed," including fewer U.S. cinema screens and a further focus on tentpole titles, Michael Nathanson says in his report"Say Goodbye to Hollywood."
Among his predictions: The U.S. will end up with fewer cinema screens, and most studios will have to look for mergers and acquisitions as "only a few studios will have the right mix of assets to survive" and profit from an accelerated shift to streaming services. "Aside from Disney and their control of Disney+/Hulu and Warner Bros. with HBO Max, the three other majors and the two minis will likely need to consolidate to increase selling clout and accelerate cost savings," Nathanson argued. "Indeed, this is what occurred in the recorded music industry over time as six once-mighty global recorded music companies merged into three healthier ones.
Once moviegoers get comfortable returning to theaters after the virus crisis, Nathanson predicted that most film fans would eventually return to cinemas and "we continue to believe the theatrical window will remain a critical driver of profitability and social awareness for tentpole movies." But, he said, "we question how much capital the studios will be willing to allocate to movies. … It is the small- to medium-sized budget movies that we worry about.
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