USD/JPY is trading near 149. Economists at MUFG Bank analyze the pair’s outlook ahead of the US Nonfarm Payrolls report. USD/JPY to see a clear break
higher well through 150.00 before the MoF intervenes One of the key measures monitored by the BoJ that we track – contractual pay for full-time employees – slowed from 2.0% to 1.5%, the weakest reading since April.
Given that wages will be such a key determinant in assessing whether price stability has been achieved, this data certainly lowers the probability of any near-term surprise removal of NIRP or another change in YCC. It seems therefore more likely that we will see USD/JPY grind higher and retest that level just above the 150 mark that prompted a sharp reversal. That of course could come as soon as this afternoon if the US jobs report was to prove stronger-than-expected.
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