Forex Analysis by Investing.com (Barani Krishnan) covering: USD/JPY, US Dollar Index Futures, US dollar Futures, US Dollar Index. Read Investing.com (Barani Krishnan)'s latest article on Investing.com
Consolidation above 149 may resume uptrend, resulting in 153 target, one of the year’s favorite currency plays, could be on track to a 36-year high in favor of the US dollar, though the Japanese component of the pair could regain some strength in the near term.At the time of writing, USD/JPY was moderately lower at 149.69, versus the session low of 149.84 and Tuesday’s close of 149.80.Investing.com’s analysis of USD/JPY, in collaboration with SKCharting.com suggests a near-term target of 148.
From a range of plausible scenarios examined by Investing.com, including that of Japanese currency officials playing bogeymen again to defend the yen, none seem to offer a long-term fix for the ills plaguing the JPY. Since then, market opinion has again shifted on whether the central bank would do a hike before the end of the year, at its two remaining policy meetings in November and December. That has led to some renewed volatility in the dollar versus other majors.
US bond yields, meanwhile, could continue going north, occasionally pulling the dollar along for a free ride. The yield on thecould at some point chart new peaks beyond Tuesday’s near 4.8%, which is already the highest since August 2007.With the yen though, the odds are stacked against it at every turn. Firstly, the chance of the BOJ doing a policy U-turn before the end of the year is highly remote. The odds don’t get better even over the longer time horizon.
After traversing the Japanese financial, macro, social and forex landscape, the short answer from our analysis at Investing.com is “highly unlikely”.The bullish early October momentum in USD was supported by the 5-week EMA, or Exponential Moving Average, of 149.10, Dixit of SKCharting said, adding: 153 would be the mid term target if the bullish wave is established above 151.90 with day/week close above the zone.”The aim of this article is purely to inform and does not in any way represent an inducement or recommendation to buy or sell any commodity or its related securities. The author Barani Krishnan does not hold a position in the commodities and securities he writes about. He typically uses a range of views outside his own to bring diversity to his analysis of any market.
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