US Midterm Elections: Three things to know – Morgan Stanley UnitedStates US Elections Markets DollarIndex Banks
“Early reported results should look favorable to Republicans, but as in 2020, leads can vanish over time. Consider the Pennsylvania Senate race. Assuming mail-in ballots are cast in the same proportions and with the same party skew as they were in 2020, we estimate that the Republican candidate could win the in-person vote by 29% and still lose after all ballots are counted. Hence, we will need to reserve judgement – perhaps for days – on which party seems poised to control Congress.
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