The Conference Board's leading economic index dropped for the fifth consecutive month, suggesting the U.S. economy is slowing and could be headed for a recession.
The index foreshadows economic developments by about seven months.
The decline in economic growth in the second quarter meets the technical, but unofficial, criteria for a recession, which requires a "significant decline in economic activity that is spread across the economy and that lasts more than a few months." Still, the NBER — the semi-official arbiter — may not confirm it immediately as it typically waits up to a year to call it.
There are conflicting signs about the economy's health, fueling debate over the state of the economy: The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits has gradually increased, companies have announced layoffs or hiring freezes, and the housing market is softening.
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