Latinos, especially first-time voters, have been loosening their traditional ties to Democrats, even though polls suggest that doesn’t automatically translate into Republican gains.
As a tight presidential race in 2024 and another close battle for control of Congress look likely, Latino voters — one of the fastest-growing blocs at over 34 million — are increasingly viewed as a potentially decisive group.
“The parties have been very transactional,” said Hector Sanchez Barba, CEO of civic engagement group Mi Familia Vota. “They just come the year of the election, especially in the swing states. We know that this requires long term investment, so it’s an opportunity for both parties.” But Pew also found that Latino support for Democratic candidates dropped to a 21 percentage-point margin in the 2022 US midterms from a 47-point margin in 2018, mostly due to changes in turnout among Latino Republicans.
While Latino voter turnout increased in 2020 by more than 30% from the 2016 election, a majority of them voted for Biden in key swing states, though former president Donald Trump gained in southern Florida, according to a report by the University of California Los Angeles. Still, that’s a small fraction of the roughly $1 billion in ad spending on the 2020 presidential election in just 13 key states, according to an NPR analysis. Coupled with a broader trend among younger, undecided voters to stray from cable news, a similar strategy for 2024 may overlook a critical mass of Latino voters with campaign pitches.
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