US inflation data released yesterday showed a fall to an annualized rate of 6%, as had been widely expected.
However, month-on-month prices did rise by 0.4%, slightly below the 0.5% rise recorded from December to January.
As for next month’s inflation data, it currently is forecasting that monthly inflation will fall by just under 0.3%, while year-on-year inflation will decline meaningfully again to slightly below 5.4%.The Federal Reserve faces a difficult two days before coming to a decision on interest rates, especially in the aftermath of the failure of the Silicon Valley Bank.
The CME FedWatch Tool overwhelmingly believes that there will be another 0.25% rate rise next week, with 82.7% of its respondents saying that this will happen. But due to the time-lag associated with CPI data, we would champion a move by the Fed not to raise rates at all later this month."Shoppers are still having to deal with stubbornly high food prices as they increased by 0.4% in February, year-on-year food prices have now risen by 9.5%.
Yet energy services prices which include electricity and utility gas costs, have risen by a huge 13.3% year-on-year.Utility gas prices dropped by 0.8% for last month, but over the year it has still climbed upwards by 14.3%.
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