United Conservatives poised for victory in a very close Alberta election: Abacus Data Poll
Analyzing the final poll of an election is both an exciting and anxiety-inducing exercise, especially when the election is close.
Among all eligible voters, the UCP leads by 4 over the NDP. Since mid-May, the UCP vote is up 9 points while the NDP vote is down 3. 12% of all eligible voters remain undecided, a drop of 7-points since our survey last week.The UCP leads by 19 among men while the NDP leads by 15 among women. 1 in 4 of those who voted for the federal Conservatives say they will vote or have voted for the NDP. Almost all of those who voted NDP or Liberal federally support the NDP.
42% think Danielle Smith will be premier after the election double the number who feel Rachel Notley will be premier . 37% are unsure who will be premier after the election. To evaluate the influence of Danielle Smith and the public’s perception of her on the election, I posed a question to respondents: how would their vote change if Smith was not leading the UCP?
Today, that group represents only 10% of the electorate, an eight-point drop from the start of the campaign. In the end, the structural advantages of a united conservative electorate t in Alberta meant the UCP was always the favourites to win the election. The NDP needed to center the election around healthcare, convince voters they had economic credibility, and persuade individuals that Notley represented the safer option available.
But whether or not the result tomorrow night is as I expect , there will be a lot of lessons for political managers to unpack in the days and weeks ahead.
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