As Moscow struggles to turn the tide of a war that has so far largely failed, Ukrainians are bracing for the next phase of fighting: a much-anticipated Russian offensive. But just where Russia will seek to land its blow remains a mystery.
ZAPORIZHZHIA REGION, Ukraine — Valentyn Lymarenko and his infantry unit have already been seasoned by a year of combat, but they are grunting through exercises in this snowy trench to prepare for the next phase of fighting: a much-anticipated Russian offensive.“We know they are coming,” Lymarenko said amid the pop of practice rifle fire. “We don’t know where.”
Ukraine has been adamant about its ambitions to push Russia out and retake all land, including the 10,000-square-mile Crimean Peninsula that Moscow has occupied illegally since 2014. But Many of those troops have headed into the raging battle for Bahkmut, a city on the path to Putin’s longtime goal of conquering Donbas, which comprises Ukraine’s Donetsk and Luhansk regions.
It’s a daunting defensive posture. But 50 weeks of war — during which Ukraine has roughly quadrupled the size of its overall fighting force — and billions in donated weapons have made the country for more able to cover the long horizon of threats than it was a year ago.
So far in the war, Russian progress through urban battlefields has been grinding and gory, particularly the ongoing fight for Bakhmut, where each block has come with heavy casualties on each side.Ukrainian fighters say the pace of enemy shelling has slowed around the city, possibly as munition stocks have depleted. Instead, the Russians are sending waves of fighters largely unprotected by armored vehicles, a preview of what a major offensive in the region could look like.
Ukraine has detected a buildup of troops in the area, including two new battalion tactical groups, but far fewer than are massing farther north, Dmytrashkivskyi said.
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