Rarely is there a UFC title fight where one question is so preponderant: Does challenger Sean O'Malley even have a chance to defeat champion Aljamain Sterling when they fight Saturday in the main event of UFC 292 at TD Garden in Boston, Massachusetts, for the bantamweight title?
The odds heavily favor Sterling. The styles of the fighters — Sterling is a wrestler and O'Malley a striker — favors Sterling. The quality of opposition favors Sterling. Just about any metric you want to use favors Sterling.
O'Malley's never faced the kind of big, burly wrestler he will when he faces Sterling, who is relentless and never stops trying to put his opponent on his back. Even O'Malley knows he is in for trouble if that happens too often.If O'Malley can prevent that, the outlook of the fight changes dramatically. Sterling, who had four takedowns at UFC 288 on UFC legend and Olympic gold medal-winning wrestler Henry Cejudo, is likely to get him down at least a couple of times.
The most expected way the fight plays out is that O'Malley uses his jab and kicks to try to stay all the way on the outside and keep Sterling at bay while he tries to set him up for a potentially fight-ending combination, while Sterling will be looking to close the distance and either shoot on O'Malley or fight into the clinch.But, and admittedly, this is a big but, if O'Malley can stay at range, he has the kind of striking that will cause Sterling problems.
All of that suggests that O'Malley is far more than a hype job put into a fight with no chance to win., that's a lucrative price. So I'll take the money and bet one unit on O'Malley to win at +200.Strawweight champion Zhang Weili is a -320 favorite to defend her title against hard-hitting Amanda Lemos in the co-main event. Lemos is +250.
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