Earlier this month, J.P. Morgan raised the odds of U.S. recession by the year-end to 35% citing easing labor market pressures, while Goldman Sachs lowered...
- UBS Global Wealth Management has raised the odds of a U.S. recession to 25% from 20%, citing weakness stemming from softer jobs growth and the July unemployment data which stoked fears of a downturn.
Last week the U.S. Department of Labor had lowered its estimate for total payroll employment by 818,000 for the period from April 2023 to March 2024, meaning U.S. employers had added far fewer jobs than originally reported in the year through March. With the excess savings built up during the pandemic being used up, "continued income growth will be critical to keep spending rising, since a steady savings rate is probably the best we can hope for," said Brian Rose, senior U.S. economist at UBS.
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