U.S. Federal Reserve likely to slow its rate cuts with inflation pressures still elevated

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U.S. Federal Reserve likely to slow its rate cuts with inflation pressures still elevated
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Fed policy-makers are set to reduce their benchmark rate by a quarter-point to about 4.3% when their meeting ends Wednesday

Americans hoping for lower borrowing costs for homes, credit cards and cars may be disappointed after this week’s Federal Reserve meeting. The Fed’s policy-makers are likely to signal fewer interest rate cuts next year than were previously expected.

“We’re on the cusp of a transition to them not cutting every meeting,” said David Wilcox, a former senior Fed official who is an economist with Bloomberg Economics and the Peterson Institute for International Economics. “They’re going to slow the tempo of cuts.” On Wednesday, the policy-makers will also issue their quarterly projections for growth, inflation, unemployment and their benchmark interest rate over the next three years. In September, they had collectively envisioned that they’d cut rates four times next year. Economists now expect just two or three Fed rate cuts in 2025. Wall Street traders foresee even fewer: Just two cuts, according to futures prices.

Fed officials, including Powell, have said they still foresee inflation heading lower, however slowly, while their key rate is still high enough to restrain growth. As a result, reducing rates this week is more akin to letting up on a brake than stepping on an accelerator. “It seems easier to explain not cutting than to find themselves in a position where they would have to raise rates in this political environment,” Sinclair said.

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