The coronavirus pandemic has already caused the recession to begin, the UCLA Anderson Forecast says in an unprecedented update.
says the economy has already stopped growing and will remain in recession through the end of September.
Economists at the UCLA Anderson School of Management — the university’s graduate business school — said they revised the forecast after incorporating a review of how the 1957–58 H2N2 influenza pandemic affected the U.S. economy.The year started solidly, but the forecast predicted that rapid effects on the economy from the virus would slow first-quarter economic growth to a rate of 0.4% and that the economy would shrink at a 6.5% rate in the second quarter and a 1.9% rate in the third quarter.
Because California has a higher proportion of its economic activity linked to tourism and trans-Pacific transportation, the forecast predicts that the recession will be slightly more severe in the state.
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