U.S. dollar won’t fall as rest of world won’t let it

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U.S. dollar won’t fall as rest of world won’t let it
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Greenback’s strong week shows how dangerous it can be to bet against it

The dollar just had its best week in two years, showing once again how dangerous it can be to bet against the U.S. currency if the rest of the world just won’t let it drop.

The main catalyst for the renewed dollar strength was the clear signals coming from central banks in Europe and Japan that any efforts by the Fed to up the ante on rate cuts would be matched in kind. While the Bank of Japan had been moving in the opposite direction, both the BoJ and the country’s new prime minister threw cold water on plans to further ‘normalize’ policy with higher rates following the Fed’s large cut.

Societe Generale’s currency strategist Kit Juckes this week puzzled over why the dollar is rising again so shortly after the Fed has started cutting rates. He noted that the two previous multi-year dollar rallies over the past 50 years were completely reversed after Fed easing commenced. SocGen strategist Juckes highlighted that foreign investors had increased their net holdings of U.S. assets by a “staggering” $40 trillion since 2020 - making it all the more remarkable that this thirst hasn’t yet been slaked.

U.S. mutual fund numbers have seen net outflows from global equities over the last month, a fairly consistent trend since the Fed began raising interest rates in March 2022.

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