Kenta Maeda vs. Tanner Houck doesn't really instill fear into the hearts of batters (or bettors) But Covers_Caley thinks that the best play for this early matinee comes from backing the men on the mound.
doesn’t exactly scream"pitcher’s duel," but these two are in a sneaky-good spot to succeed this afternoon.
Let’s start with Maeda. His stuff looked really good in his first start of the season against the Marlins, as he mixed his pitches well and gave up just three hits while striking out nine. He followed that by allowing four runs on eight hits over six innings against the White Sox, where all of the damage in that game was limited to just one inning.righty: Despite a 4.09 ERA, his expected ERA is a much more impressive 2.
On the other side, despite a few more walks, Houck has some very similar numbers. The right-hander has been a reliable starter for the Red Sox so far, having yet to allow more than three earned runs or five hits in any of his three 2023 starts. Houck’s advanced stats also show promise, as the RHP has given up some hard contact this year... but opponents making successful contact has been rare. Houck owns a 2.91 xERA, a .185 opponent xBA, and a .313 opponent expected slugging percentage. Plus, his K rate has been solid, punching out more than a batter an inning.
The Twins’ bats broke out yesterday, but they certainly haven’t been consistent to start the year. Minnesota ranks 22nd in batting average and 23rd in OPS when facing right-handed pitching and has the seventh-highest K rate.My best bet:
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