(Bloomberg) -- Turkish inflation probably decelerated for the first time in eight months, ushering in some relief from a cost-of-living crisis that saw price...
-- Turkish inflation probably decelerated for the first time in eight months, ushering in some relief from a cost-of-living crisis that saw price increases top out above 75%.With domestic demand beginning to sag, data due Wednesday will show annual inflation slipped to 72.6% in June, according to the median forecast in a Bloomberg survey of economists. Monthly price growth , the central bank’s preferred gauge, was probably the slowest in over a year at 2.2%.
“Inflation has reached the peak and we expect strong disinflation over the upcoming months — thanks to slowing domestic demand,” Deutsche Bank AG analysts including Christian Wietoska said in a report. The headline rate is set to reach “the low 50s” by the end of August, they said. Treasury and Finance Minister Mehmet Simsek said Monday it was “important” for inflation to slow below 42% — the upper range of the central bank’s year-end forecasts but still about eight times the official 5% target rate.“We expect favorable base effects to play a large role in short-term inflation moves – especially in July and August, when we see the annual rate tumbling by around 10 percentage points in each month.
Unanchored expectations can fuel front-loaded spending if consumers believe prices will accelerate further in the future. The central bank has said domestic demand still at “inflationary levels.”A measure of Turkish manufacturing activity compiled by the Istanbul Chamber of Industry and S&P Global has been below the 50-mark that separates expansion from contraction for three months, with companies raising their selling prices in June to the least extent in four and a half years.
Domestic Demand Inflation Expectations Price Growth Price Increases Economists Disinflation
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