Inside the Market’s roundup of some of today’s key analyst actions
“Against a waning economic backdrop,” National Bank Financial analyst Giuliano Thornhill thinks Canadian seniors’ housing represents “a logical shift for investor sentiment as valuations remain at a spread to the cost of financing, margins are improving, while near-term supply risks appear to be muted.”
“Multifamily is well-liked across income/REIT funds,” he noted. “Seniors’ has many of the same drivers, with a few caveats, but also benefits to investors. For starters, these too are short duration leases that reset in a more predictable fashion than multi-family and may be sought after if the housing market enters a deadlock state. While rent controlled, seniors’ has a substantial services component that differentiates them from their purely real estate peers.
“Half of NOI is generated from LTC, which we view as effectively an infrastructure-like asset and providing predictability to results,” said Mr. Thornhill. “While there may be heightened political/operating risks, strict regulations and growing waitlist insulate this segment to supply risks. Ultimately, regulators need these private operators within the healthcare system.
In a research report released Tuesday, Mr. MacCulloch made modest adjustments to his commodity price forecast, particularly for the second half of the year. That led to a series of target adjustments for stocks in his coverage universe. “Full-year guidance was revised downwards, reflecting a more challenging backdrop for H2/24,” the analyst said. “AC cited expectations for weaker pricing conditions in H2/24, consistent with the commentary from competitors in recent weeks. Management highlighted expectations for lower load factors for H2/24 and the competitive pressure it is seeing on certain international routes. Full-year EBITDA guidance was lowered to $3.1-$3.
In response to Monday’s announcement, he moved his recommendation for its shares to “tender” from “sector perform” and his target to $35 to reflect the offer price from $30“Given the healthy premium, we do not anticipate a superior bid to be likely,” he said. “Our review of industry indicators suggests that the operating environment is sequentially improving, albeit with volatile trends. Specifically, Mattress manufacturing sales declined 6 per cent in Q2/24 ; a sequential improvement from a decline of 21 per cent year-over-year in Q1/24, Following 3 quarters of positive year-over-year growth, residential unit sales declined 4 per cent year-over-year in Q2/24, and The consumer confidence index improved to 66.
“Our Hold rating reflects the limited potential return to our target,” he said. “We have a relative preference for WN given its wide holdco discount .”Vancouver-based Montage is a single-asset gold developer advancing its 90-per-cent-owned, fully permitted Koné gold project in Côte d’Ivoire, which a “sizeable” after-tax net present value and internal rate of return, according to an updated Feasibility Study.
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