Trump's Threat to Annex Canada: A Negotiating Tactic or a Pipe Dream?

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Trump's Threat to Annex Canada: A Negotiating Tactic or a Pipe Dream?
CANADAAnnexationDONALD TRUMP
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A B.C. expert suggests U.S. President Trump's threats to make Canada the 51st state may be part of a strategy for economic concessions. The article analyzes the possibility, drawing parallels to past instances of economic coercion and voluntary sovereignty surrender. It also examines the political and economic ramifications of such a scenario for Canada.

A B.C. expert in international politics and security believes that U.S. President Donald Trump 's threats to make Canada the 51st state might be part of a poorly conceived negotiating strategy to secure economic concessions. However, he doesn't fully subscribe to this notion.

Will Greaves, associate professor of international relations at the University of Victoria, stated, 'I think he (Trump) is speaking perhaps quite authentically, when he says that he sees some kind of future in which the United States is able to use its power to dominate its western hemispheric neighbors and ultimately subjugate them to its will. I think that is the vision that he has.' Trump recently expressed his intention to use economic force to annex Canada, and Greaves pointed out several instances where larger states have employed economic tools like sanctions and tariffs to undermine the sovereignty of smaller states. He acknowledged, 'But not between friendly countries.' Greaves emphasized, 'I think that is the key. So tariffs have been used alongside economic sanctions as a means of coercive diplomacy between hostile states, but it is not something that is done to one's friends and allies, and I think that is the major change that we are seeing at the moment.' Trump has previously suggested that Canada could avoid tariffs by simply joining the United States, but Greaves is unaware of any case where a state has used such means to forcefully end another country's sovereignty against its will. 'Economic sanctions and tariffs can be used as a tool to get another state to do what you want them to do, but it's a tool that makes everybody poorer,' Greaves stated. 'So it's not really a good tool to use if you want to take over a territory for your own profit, or your economic well-being.'Public and political opposition in Canada to Trump's proposition is overwhelmingly negative, except for a few business voices. However, there are examples of countries voluntarily surrendering some, if not all, of their sovereignty for economic gains. Perhaps the most prominent recent instance occurred in 1989-90 when East Germany formally joined West Germany, promised political freedoms and economic prosperity. Members of the European Union have also progressively relinquished sovereignty in certain areas, including trade, for economic benefits. 'You have got lots of examples of countries choosing to reduce trade barriers between themselves in order to have better economic conditions and better relationships with each other,' Greaves said. 'But it doesn't work as well in the opposite direction.'Prime Minister Justin Trudeau recently characterized Trump's desire to make Canada the 51st state as 'a real thing.' Greaves commented that confirming this is challenging because 'it requires an assessment of what's happening inside Trump's mind and what his actual motivations are, and that is a difficult thing to determine.' He added that annexation, which implies full incorporation into the United States, appears to be an 'extremely unrealistic prospect' for several reasons. 'But clearly, Mr. Trump is looking to make it such that Canada is firmly subordinated to the political and economic priorities of his administration, regardless of whatever we wish, whatever our own democratic institutions and leaders have to say about it,' Greaves stated. 'He doesn't put any stock in Canadian democracy or Canadian institutions to govern Canada and he thinks that Canada should be governed from Washington, whether it's formal or informal.' Greaves suggested that Trump might envision a scenario where Canada becomes similar to Belarus's current position relative to Russia - nominally independent but ultimately subservient. He drew parallels to Ukraine prior to 2014, when Russia annexed Crimea after pro-western protesters ousted a pro-Russian government. 'And the Russian government said, no, you are not actually a real country. We don't recognize your sovereignty or independence. You are not allowed to make this choice.' As Canadian leaders and businesses grapple with rapidly revising decades-long trade relationships in the face of an increasingly protectionist United States, a comparable situation looms regarding Canada's security arrangements, which date back to the post-World War II era.

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