The threat of US tariffs on Canada reveals a fundamental challenge in dealing with President Trump: understanding his motivations. Alberta Premier Danielle Smith suggests appeasing him, while NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh calls for a more confrontational approach. Analyzing Trump's past behavior and his rhetoric reveals a desire for concessions and a need to appear victorious. This article explores the potential strategies for navigating this complex situation.
U.S. President Donald Trump and first lady Melania Trump arrived at Capital One arena on the inauguration day of Trump's second presidential term, in Washington, on Jan. 20. On Tuesday, Alberta Premier Danielle Smith said the U.S. President doesn’t like to be challenged, so the best thing to do is figure out what he wants. “I don’t know that this particular administration and this particular President responds well to threats, especially empty threats,” she said in a press conference.
A few minutes later, NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh delivered the opposite assessment when he spoke to reporters in Toronto. “I said from the beginning, the only thing that Trump will understand is force. We have to fight back.”The only thing that will persuade the 47th President of the United States to back away from imposing tariffs on Canada is the fear that it might detract from the glorification of Donald J. Trump. He likes to be adored by his MAGA base as the leader who will restore the U.S. to greatness. He wants to show off concessions the way Roman generals touted victories to the plebs. But he has promised his base good times, lower prices and a better economy – and he doesn’t want them to start thinking he has failed. The assessments of Ms. Smith and Mr. Singh tell us more about their own politics than the U.S. President. Ms. Smith prefers to rub the lion’s belly and find food to fill his appetite because she knows that if there is a trade war, Canada’s best weapon is tacking a price on her province’s chief exports, oil and gas. Mr. Singh, now seen as a weak leader, hopes to look tough in responding to a U.S. President that left-leaning Canadians deplore. What we know about Mr. Trump tells us he isn’t very worried about a few lost jobs, or lost profits for some. He imposed tariffs on China in his first term and ignored complaints. He’s still a fan of tariffs, although economists warn they will impede growth.We’ve seen that before. In 2017, Mr. Trump started a mad scramble when he told his aides he would suddenly announce U.S. withdrawal from the North American Free Trade Agreement. He pulled back after then-agriculture secretary Sonny Perdue showed him a map of the MAGA-centric red states that would be hurt most. Now, Mr. Trump’s followers have been promised good times and lower prices after years of inflation. They’d notice quickly if gas prices started to spike. The Trump administration might exempt oil from the tariffs to avoid that – which is why Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s government has floated the idea of export tariffs on oil, which would raise prices at U.S. pumps. Ms. Smith is quite right that it won’t do much good to engage in a spitting contest with Mr. Trump. Declaring victory is important to him. But her operating principle for negotiating with Mr. Trump – finding out what he wants and giving it to him – is a path to failure, too. What he wants is concessions. What he loves is claiming credit. He has claimed credit for resolving the Kosovo war that ended in 1999, for fewer airplane-crash deaths in his second year in office, for stock market surges, and for Mr. Trudeau’s resignation. The problem with giving him what he wants is what he can get. If he gets one concession easily, he’ll keep threatening tariffs to get more. On Monday night, he threatened to impose 25-per-cent tariffs on Canada because it is supposedly an “abuser” that allows human trafficking and fentanyl smuggling across the border. On Tuesday, The Wall Street Journal reported that the tariffs are really a ploy to force Canada and Mexico to open talks on renegotiating the USMCA trade deal a year early. That’s the successor to NAFTA that Mr. Trump signed in 2018, the one that is supposed to ensure that the U.S. will not impose tariffs on Canadian goods. One day, if a real deal is to be done with Mr. Trump, it will have to allow him to claim some kind of win. But the only way to get there is to threaten to wound his standing among his base, and his ego
DONALD TRUMP US TARIFFS CANADA TRADE WAR NAFTA USMCA
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