Counting on the universe to give Donald Trump what he deserves may not be the safest bet. EricLevitz writes
It might not be the economy, stupid. Photo: Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images Five months ago, America’s unemployment rate was at a half-century low, wages were rising, consumer confidence was high — and Donald Trump’s approval stood at about 43 percent.
That still sounds right to me. Given the administration’s refusal to avert state-level fiscal crises and its failure to mount any real plan for preventing a second wave of coronavirus infections, life in America is poised to get worse before it gets better. Trump did see a polling boost in the immediate aftermath of the coronavirus outbreak, but so did every other leader of a stricken state or nation. Electorates tend to rally around their leaders in times of crisis.
Biden’s lead in national polls remains formidable. There’s scant chance that Trump will receive more votes than his Democratic rival this fall. But, of course, he won’t need to: Due to the overrepresentation of heavily Republican, white, non-college-educated voters in battleground states, Biden will likely need to win the popular vote by roughly three points to secure an Electoral College majority.
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