Professional investor positioning and sentiment now reflects a broad acceptance of a resilient U.S. economy and the chance for further upside in the indexes through the year
approaching 3000 with unemployment at a 50-year low might speak to some as "mission accomplished" moments of culmination for the rally, at least for a short time. Just in time for Uber's hefty and controversial IPO, with WeWork and perhaps even SoftBank's aggressive Vision Fund to follow.
But with the market as a whole no longer demonstrably cheap and 2019 profit forecasts stubbornly flat despite most companies beating first-quarter earnings estimates, bullish positioning and psychology can leave the market less able to absorb an unforeseen challenge to the upbeat case - such as a new round tariffs on China imposed by the White House, say.The most constructive factor in handicapping the market this year has been the behavior of the market itself.
Still, it's become easier to quibble in recent weeks with the character of the market's advance. The break to a fresh high last week was tentative and marginal, by a mere few points, with Friday stopping a whisper shy of early-week record levels in the S&P.
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