Close elections tend to favor the GOP presidential candidate — but that convention is no more, one analyst claims.
Former U.S. President Donald Trump watches a video of President Joe Biden playing during a rally on November 6, 2022 in Miami, Florida.A bevy of recent polling data suggests that voters are split on which candidate they would prefer in the 2024 presidential election when faced with a potential race between Democratic incumbent President Joe Biden and former president and likely Republican nominee Donald Trump.shows that Biden is leading Trump by just 0.4 percent.
Although the election is still more than a year away, the data is worrying some Democrats, who fear that a close race will benefit Trump when it comes to the Electoral College. Conventional wisdom suggests that Republicans generally outperform Democrats in the Electoral College , even when the electorate is nearly evenly split — in 2016, for example, Trump won the presidency in spite of losing the popular vote by around two million votes to Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton. In 2020, though Trump lost to Biden by around seven million votes overall, he was within 45,000 votes in three different swing states of being re-elected through the Electoral College.
But experts have been challenging the prevailing wisdom that Trump will perform better in the Electoral College than Biden, even if the final vote count is split.
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