Despite claims of success, a look at the economic growth figures under Prime Minister Justin Trudeau reveals a dismal record. This article analyzes Trudeau's economic performance, comparing it to his predecessors and highlighting the factors contributing to Canada's stagnant growth.
In the days following Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s January 6th resignation as leader of the Liberal Party, there has been much discussion about his legacy. One effusively positive review in the Toronto Star claimed that Trudeau’s successors “will be hard-pressed to improve on his economic track record.” But this claim is difficult to reconcile with the historical record, which shows the economic story of the Trudeau years has been one of dismal growth.
Indeed, when our economy’s growth performance is properly measured, Trudeau has the worst record of any prime minister in recent history. There’s no single perfect measure of economic success. However, growth in inflation-adjusted per-person GDP—an indicator of living standards and incomes—remains an important and broad measure. In short, it measures how quickly the economy is growing while adjusting for inflation and population growth. Back when he was first running for prime minister in 2015, Trudeau recognized the importance of long-term economic growth, often pointing to slow growth under his Conservative predecessor Stephen Harper. On the campaign trail, Trudeau blasted Harper for having the “worst record on growth since R.B. Bennett in the depths of the Great Depression.” And growth during the Harper years was indeed slow. The Conservative government endured the 2008-09 global financial crisis and subsequent weak recovery, particularly in Ontario. During Harper’s tenure as prime minister, per-person GDP growth was 0.5 per cent annually—which is lower than his predecessors Brian Mulroney (0.8 per cent), and Jean Chrétien (2.4 per cent). So, growth was weak under Harper, but Trudeau misdiagnosed the causes. Shortly after taking office, Trudeau said looser fiscal policy—with more spending, borrowing, and bigger deficits—would help spur growth in Canada, and indeed around the world. Trudeau’s government acted on this premise—boosting spending and running deficits—but his approach did not move the needle on growth. In fact, things went from bad to worse. Annual per-person GDP growth under Trudeau (0.3 per cent) was even worse than it has been under Harper. The reasons for weak economic growth—under both Harper and Trudeau—are complicated. But when it comes to performance, there’s no disputing that Trudeau’s record is worse than any long-serving prime minister in recent history. According to a recent study published by the Fraser Institute—which compared the growth performance of the five most recent long-serving prime ministers—annual per-person GDP growth was highest under Chrétien followed by Paul Martin, Mulroney, Harper, and Justin Trudeau. Of course, some defenders will blame COVID for Trudeau’s poor economic growth record, but you can’t reasonably blame the steep but relatively short pandemic-related recession for nearly a decade of stagnation. There’s no single perfect measure of economic performance, but per-person inflation-adjusted economic growth is an important and widely used measure of economic success and prosperity. Despite any claims to the contrary, Trudeau’s legacy on economic growth is—in historical terms—dismal. All Canadians should hope that his successor has more success, and oversees faster growth in the years ahead.
ECONOMICS JUSTIN TRUDEAU ECONOMIC GROWTH CANADA PRIME MINISTER LEGACY FISCAL POLICY
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