If he runs again, the campaign will inevitably be a referendum on him, which the Conservatives are confident they can win
In October of 2022, when I started working on my book about Justin Trudeau ’s government, I told my interview subjects that I thought history would judge him favourably.
Worst was the SNC-Lavalin affair, in which his office put inappropriate pressure on the attorney-general at the time, Jody Wilson-Raybould, who did not want to give a get-out-of-jail-free card to a troubled company with deep connections to the people who run the country. It brought his government to the brink of collapse, but he got past it, and all his recent predecessors had presided over scandals that were at least as bad.
In 2015, Mr. Trudeau won by promising to act for “the middle class and those working hard to join it.” He eventually lost that focus, and he responded slowly to voters’ concerns about the cost of living, leaving a huge opening for Pierre Poilievre. He has failed to effectively defend the carbon tax, such that many Canadians are now convinced it is the cause of all their problems, although it is not.
In February, when I interviewed the Prime Minister, he convinced me that he is sincere in his desire to lead the party into the next election. “I just see it as such a fundamental choice in what kind of country we are, who we are as Canadians,” he told me. “That, for me, is what I got into politics for: to have big fights like this about who we are as a country and where we’re going.”
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