Treasuries Rebound, Oil Retreats But Underlying Risks Remain

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Treasuries Rebound, Oil Retreats But Underlying Risks Remain
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We continue to see high volatility in the US sovereign papers near important psychological levels where investors are invited to decide what to do next. In this respect, the USyield shortly crossed above the 5% psychological mark yesterday, then retreated sharply in a move that was qualified by a large short covering after two popular bond bears Bill Ackman and Bill Gross said that they covered their short bets on US Treasuries.

A higher yield curve is not necessarily good news for the broader economy and stock valuations– unless the economy resists to higher rates.extended losses below the 200-DMA yesterday and the index now approaches an important technical support, the 4180 level, the major 38.2% Fibonacci retracement on last year’s rally, and which should distinguish between the actual positive trend and a medium-term bearish reversal.

On a side note, according to the US Department of Energy, there are about 17 days left in the US strategic petroleum reserves. The US produces enough oil to continue feeding America with enough energy, but the meager 17 days of stockpile limits Joe Biden’s ability to contain any important price pressure in the future, which could be triggered by an escalation of tensions in the Middle East for example.

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