'Once you go in, when can you come out?'
But the report’s authors also warn of a “major challenge” associated with the suppression approach. It “will need to be maintained — at least intermittently — for as long as the virus is circulating in the human population, or until a vaccine becomes available. In the case of COVID-19, it will be at least 12-18 months before a vaccine is available.”began its first stage on Monday in the U.S.
Experts say governments are only now beginning to acknowledge the length of time needed for lockdown measures to work. “This has been very unspoken about in countries like Italy for example,” says Elisabetta Gropelli, a virologist and lecturer in global health at St. George’s University of London. “Once you start isolation, how do you decide when to stop? Once you go in, when can you come out?”
So far, many of the social distancing measures that countries have announced are slated for an initial period of several weeks. In Italy, schools and universities will be closed and travel without a special permit will be banned until April 3. In the Netherlands, schools, restaurants and gyms are all closed until April 6. The president of the European Union is proposing a 30-day ban on non-essential travel into the bloc. It is highly likely that at least some of these measures will be extended.
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