This article analyzes the current state of the Toronto Blue Jays roster, their financial commitments, and potential strategies for the upcoming season.
Yesterday, I went through the current state of the roster. Before moving on to likely scenarios, I wanted to more briefly summarize their likely assets, financial and in trade. The Jays say they plan to contend again, but also don’t show any signs of being willing to spend like the Mets, so it’s going to require some creativity. Right now, the Jays are projected by Cot’s Contracts to have $143.8 million committed against the luxury tax . Guaranteed contracts add up to $123.
3m, but the luxury tax impact is only $114.8m, mostly because of Bo Bichette’s heavily back-loaded two year deal (since the tax number is based on average annual value). Arbitration will add another big amount to the total. Vlad’s projection of $28.9m makes up the lion’s share, but Romano ($7.8m), Varsho ($7.4m), Kirk ($4.2m), and Swanson ($2.9m) are set for significant paydays too. Clement and Manoah have smaller projections at around $1.8m each. The team can also have Zach Pop for $1.3m and Dillon Tate for $1.6, but I’m going to assume that they aren’t tendered at that value by the deadline on the 22nd. Neither has done much in the past couple of seasons, and I think they’ll be able to find not meaningfully less valuable pieces on the waiver wire if they need them. The guys I’m pretty sure they will keep, or at least are near certain to tender, bring expected actual payroll to $178m and the luxury tax number to $169.5m. Finally, for luxury tax accounting we have to add in the players making the minimum (12 of them heading into the offseason, including replacements for the just waived Genesis Cabrera plus Tate and Pop), 14 players in the minors but on the 40 man, and Cots’ rough estimate of player benefit costs. All in, those items add up to $31.4m, bringing the Jays’ current tax number to $200.9m. Shi Davidi reported yesterday that the Jays believe that they just slid under the threshold for the 2024 season after paying it in 202
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