+34UBS finds Toronto home prices down about 30 per cent from their 2022 peak and Vancouver down 20 per cent, with both cities now among the weakest housing markets it tracks.
Toronto and Vancouver are now among the weakest real estate markets in the world, according to the annual Global Real Estate Bubble Index published Monday by UBS, the global wealth management firm.
The report found Toronto housing prices have fallen by around 30 per cent since peaking in 2022. Vancouver prices are down around 20 per cent from that peak, with home sales at a 25-year low. UBS tracks residential prices across 23 cities worldwide, including Amsterdam, Dubai, New York City and Tokyo. The index examines price trends, bubble risk, how long it takes to buy a 650-square-foot apartment on an average income, and how ownership costs compare with rent.
Toronto housing market shows renewed activity
The report lands as Toronto sees a spike in activity. July was the busiest month in four years, according to the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board, though some listings continue to lag and agents are getting creative in a competitive buyers market. For eight years, between 2014 and 2022, UBS found Toronto had the strongest housing market of any city it tracks. Prices doubled on the back of population growth, investor demand and heavy construction.
Since the peak, UBS says, the trend has flipped. Real estate prices are down about 10 per cent in the past year alone, a more dramatic single-year drop than nearly every other city in the report. Vancouver tied Toronto for that distinction. UBS rates Toronto's current bubble risk as moderate.
It points to Ottawa's foreign buyer ban, a glut of housing supply and higher interest rates as factors behind the market reversal. On Vancouver, the report said elevated inventory, slower economic growth, inflation concerns and the risk of further interest rate hikes continue to weigh on the near-term outlook for prices. By comparison, Germany's Frankfurt and Munich saw prices fall by around four per cent, while most cities in the United States outside San Francisco also saw declines.
Local data reflects significant price correction
Local data reflects the correction. In TRREB's most recent figures, listings in August were down 14 per cent compared with the same time last year. Sales across the Greater Toronto Area edged lower, down roughly two per cent from August 2025. The composite benchmark price was down 4.5 per cent year-over-year in August, with average selling prices hovering at $993,410.
The average Toronto home price across all property types peaked at $1,334,544 in February 2022. Rents have eased too. Across one- and two-bedroom units in the GTA, TRREB notes prices are down around two per cent from the second quarter of 2025 to 2026, averaging $2,273 and $3,013 respectively. The board says this continues to provide renters with substantial choice.
UBS ranks Toronto as somewhat more affordable than its global peers, though it still notes monthly housing costs are burdensome. A skilled service worker needs less than five years on an average income to afford a 650-square-foot apartment in Toronto, compared with 15 years in Hong Kong and 11 years in London. It will take renters in Toronto roughly 20 years of paid rent before they could own a 650-square-foot apartment, the report finds.
Toronto ranks affordable compared to global peers
In Zurich the price-to-rent ratio is 46 years, in Geneva 40 years, and in Vancouver around 23 years. Marco Pedri, a real estate broker with Shoreline Realty, said the market currently favours both renters and buyers, though not necessarily investors. He spoke in an interview with CTV News.
"I think a lot of people are able to secure a place at a more reasonable price in terms of renting, especially if it's rent controlled," Pedri said. "Even on the purchasing side ... for those who may have been looking to get into the market to purchase something for their own personal use, rather than an investment, this may be an opportunity to actually secure something.
Foreign buyer ban expiration impacts investor demand
" UBS says the foreign buyer ban, a supply glut and higher interest rates are affecting Toronto and Vancouver. Ottawa enacted the foreign buyer ban in 2023, and it is set to expire on Jan. 1, 2027. It remains to be seen whether the federal government will extend it. Pedri said he is skeptical that lifting the ban would reignite investor demand the way it once did, pointing to today's rental returns and regulations.
"You would think that would be a good opportunity, but when you look at the rental prices in today's market and the return that some of these investors might be getting, as well as the rules around rental regulations, it may not be that favourable for a foreign investor to actually purchase in these major Canadian cities," he said. "So even if the foreign buyer ban was lifted, I don't necessarily think that we're going to see a magical correction-I don't even want to say correction, a magical uplift in the market. "
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CP24:Toronto and Vancouver were ranked among the weakest real estate markets in the world. Here’s whyThis story was compiled and edited by the HeadTopics newsroom and HT AI from the reports above.
UBS Global Real Estate Bubble Index Toronto Housing Prices Vancouver Housing Market Foreign Buyer Ban TRREB Data
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