Kevin Carmichael: And when the audience for that story becomes too big, the story becomes true
On the weekend before Christmas, Bill Morneau accused the Official Opposition of talking us into a recession.
“I’m aware of your text-book definition,” Poilievre said in Ottawa on Dec. 17 after a reporter described a recession as two consecutive quarters of economic contraction and asked him to produce evidence that such a scenario was likely. “But I will say as Reagan said: A recession is when your neighbour loses his job. A depression is when you lose your job. And a recovery is when Justin Trudeau loses his job. Thank you very much.
“It makes me nervous,” Simon De Baene, co-founder and chief executive of Montreal-based software developer GSoft, said earlier this month when I asked him about the possibility of a recession. De Meane had just taken me on a tour of GSoft’s newly renovated and expanded work space and he said there was no sign of a slowdown in his order books. Still, “we plan for the worst,” he said.
Narratives “are the dominant explanation for the strength of a recession,” Shiller told the Wall Street Journal earlier this month. “The Great Depression was great because of the narrative. Franklin Roosevelt said all we had to fear was fear itself. That phrase is remembered by many people. And it isn’t just fear. Other emotions, like anger, might change the economy and markets.”Jerome Powell, chair of the U.S.
The relationship still isn’t entirely clear, but “the project already shows that monitoring news tone in real time is a very effective way to capture sudden changes in investor sentiment that would not be captured otherwise,” Damien Puy, an IMF economist and one of the authors, wrote in a blog post that the fund published on Dec. 16.
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