Daily roundup of research and analysis from The Globe and Mail’s market strategist Scott Barlow
“We expect 4Q24 results to offer few surprises with banks likely to report incremental worsening in credit costs , net interest margin stability in the face of BoC rate-cuts and tempered loan growth. EPS growth momentum improving heading into 2025 with our revised 4Q24 EPS estimates implying +7% YoY growth vs +6% reported for 3Q24; PCLs +3bp QoQ; NIM +1bp; loan growth +1.0% … Potential for a cyclical rebound on the back of BoC rate cuts, US soft-landing remains a bit of an unknown.
“Headline CPI in October that was slightly stronger than consensus expectations and back at 2%YoY should not be a concerning pick-up for BoC officials, but stronger core measures could give officials more pause when considering a larger rate cut. Part of the strength in inflation in October was a onetime larger increase in property taxes.
“Hedge fund long positions have boosted US equity long/short hedge fund returns to +14% YTD. Our Hedge Fund VIP list of the most popular long positions has returned +30% YTD, almost twice the return of the equal-weight S&P 500 … Hedge funds rotated within stocks exposed to this year’s dominant themes of mega-cap exceptionalism and AI exuberance.
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