Toncoin's rally has broken a long-term downtrend. It occurred on the back of high volume, and a sustained positive shift in on-chain metrics..
Toncoin has rallied by 17.4% in the last 24 hours after CEO Pavel Durov confirmed that Telegram replaced the TON Foundation as the network's largest validator.
Weeks ago, the CEO had announced a sixfold fall in transaction fees. According to AMBCrypto, these strategic transformations have also been converted into tangible network traction. In fact, with 67 million transactions in April, the network has registered its strongest monthly performance so far in 2026. An 18% increase in the staking ratio and the strongest single-day staking inflow, measuring $191.83 million, accompanied the strong price rally and extraordinary trading volumes.
Here's where TON's price trends could go next. TON breaks long-term downtrend, reclaims psychological $2-level Since August 2024, Toncoin has been on a downtrend on the 1-day price chart. It did have periods of bullishness, such as November 2024 and March 2025, but none of them succeeded in breaking the previous swing high. This has changed.
The ongoing rally broke the January high at $1.95 decisively. The trading volume on Tuesday, 05 May, was over 5x the 20-day moving average of the daily trading volume on Bybit. The highs at $2.16 and $2.37 are the next resistance levels to watch out for. The Fibonacci extension levels roughly lined up with these resistances, marking supply zones for TON.
Traders' call to action - Patience, not FOMO The Directional Movement Index revealed a strong uptrend in progress on the 4-hour chart, and the CMF confirmed heavy capital inflows. The MFI did not yet make a bearish divergence with the price, but it could do so soon. The Fibonacci levels were plotted based on the data at hand, but it should be noted that TON can still go higher to $2.35 before starting a retracement phase.
Traders must understand that the bulk of the impulse move higher in the short-term has already played out. They would do better to wait for a retracement towards $1.5 than chase further upside right now. Final Summary Toncoin exhibited strong on-chain metrics, and the Telegram news bolstered bullish sentiment around the altcoin. Structure was bullish across timeframes, and buyers can wait for a minor pullback before entering the market.
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