Morgan Stanley said it saw oil prices reaching $110 a barrel by the end of the year and noted ‘the supply ceiling is still not far away and inventories are outright low’
Morgan Stanley expects the oil market to tighten during the third and fourth quarter of 2023, supported by a recovery in demand prompted by China reopening its borders among other factors.
Although Morgan Stanley predicted Brent prices in the first quarter to remain rangebound around $80-85 per barrel, it saw prices reaching $110 a barrel by the end of the year and noted “the supply ceiling is still not far away and inventories are outright low.” “We peg the upside to oil demand in China due to ‘reopening’ at close to 1 million bpd, to be realized progressively throughout the year,” the bank said, adding it expected the country’s reopening to also accelerate the recovery in aviation demand.
Meanwhile, from Feb. 5, the Group of Seven coalition will impose price caps on Russian oil products to further reduce Moscow’s revenue from energy exports and its ability to finance its invasion of Ukraine.
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