Negotiating a successful Brexit was never going to be an easy task for the UK. But three years after the referendum the country is yet to complete its EU departure. Had it avoided some of the mistakes in the negotiations, the chances are it would have left by now - and with a better deal.
As explained by a former FBI negotiator Chris Voss in his book “Never split the difference”, no deal is better than bad deal. Although Chris Voss demonstrated the usefulness of this principle mostly in the context of hostage situations and commercial negotiations, the appearance of being willing and prepared to walk away from a bad deal applies just as potently in politics as it does in these areas of life.
It is a paradox of any successful negotiation. But it was a paradox, which was not understood or utilized by the UK. In fact, the UK government was doing everything possible, despite its rhetoric, to underline that it was. The consequence of this was the sub-optimal Withdrawal Agreement agreed between the government and the EU and the lack of flexibility on the part of Brussels once it became obvious this Agreement would not be approved by the UK Parliament.
Leaving aside the qualitative assessment of the deal itself, in principle it is of no use to agree on something with your EU counterparts only to realize that your own Parliament would sink it. The UK government failed to recognize that it was playing a two-dimensional chess on a checkerboard that had an extra dimension – domestic politics.
It is a paradox that is underpinned by our innate inclination towards loss aversion; a paradox that could have helped the UK secure a better deal with the EU. But the realization of this paradox alone would not have saved the UK from the current constitutional crisis. A more robust approach towards the EU and more empathy with domestic audience and politics would have been needed on top of that.
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