Americans are growing less concerned about inflation, and it may finally be helping President Biden's reelection odds.
Relief does seem to be coming on both counts. By a variety of measures, voters are gradually growing less leery of inflation and more confident that a solid economy will last for a while. If you squint, there’s a corresponding improvement in President Joe Biden’s reelection odds.
Inflation has been Biden’s biggest economic problem and perhaps the biggest barrier to his reelection. Republicans have pounded Democrats for “Bidenflation,” with some success. Though the rate of inflation has come down sharply, prices are still rising and most price hikes remain. Higher costs for food, rent, and staples are taking a bigger bite out of incomes than before Biden took office, damaging his popularity.
Is it helping Biden politically? Maybe. Biden’s presumed Republican opponent, former President Donald Trump, has been leading Biden in a number of polls, but that edge looks to be fading. “Don't look now, but there have been multiple recent datapoints suggesting that the Presidential horserace is starting to tighten,” Tobin Marcus of Wolfe Research wrote to clients on March 28.
Barring unforeseen events, however, the outlook seems to favor Biden. Economists think inflation will continue its gradual decline and the Federal Reserve may start cutting interest rates sometime this year, which would lower mortgage rates and make borrowing a bit cheaper. There’s no sign of a recession, and a five-month stock market rally has enriched the 60% of Americans lucky enough to own shares.in late April, one of four criminal prosecutions on his plate.
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