Daily roundup of research and analysis from The Globe and Mail’s market strategist Scott Barlow
“Although we have further reduced our consumption expectations, particularly in China, ongoing supply-side challenges have served to maintain surprising tightness in some markets, most notably copper. Overall, we anticipate a volatile yet relatively attractive pricing environment over the next 12-24 months for several commodities despite a highly uncertain economic climate in both China and ex-China markets.
“There was some encouraging news for Canadian inflation in May. Headline inflation slowed 1 ppt to 3.4% y/y, a two-year low, and the yearly rate for both core metrics slowed a tick more than expected to just below 4%. Unfortunately, the short-term core metrics weren’t quite as encouraging. The 3-month annualized pace for CPI Trim was about flat at 3.8%, while CPI Median slowed a couple of ticks to 3.6%.
BofA Securities was out with a prediction that the Bank of Canada will not raise rates in July so there is no consensus view out there.In a separate Scotiabank research report, strategist Hugo Ste-Marie covers a weakening crude price. “While the equity market remains strong, the commodity market suggests the global economy is losing its mojo. Copper , which is often seen as a global growth barometer, has been hovering below US$4/lb since late April despite the China re-opening and low inventories. On the oil side, WTI has a hard time keeping its head above the US$70 level lately.
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