Enough already with the 'enthusiasm gap,' writes ed_kilgore
Do these fired-up MAGA people get extra votes for being excited? Photo: Mandel Ngan/AFP via Getty Images Those of us who get paid to write about politics inevitably have some meme or theory or habit of speech we hear regularly offered that makes us a bit crazy. For me it is the “enthusiasm gap,” which is touted every two years to claim that one party or the other or one candidate or the other is in a superior position because their supporters are psyched out of their skulls.
According to a recent Rasmussen poll released Thursday [May 14], the gap in party energy between the two candidates is rather wide. When it comes to Republicans, 70% believe Trump should be the nominee compared to 23% who believe another should take his place. Another 7% are undecided. On the Democratic side, 54% believe Biden should be the nominee relative to 28% who would prefer someone else. A whopping 18% of likely Democratic voters remain unsure.
But the bigger problem is the unreflective belief that “energy” or “enthusiasm” or “passion” can be cashed in at the ballot box for votes. Here’s how I described that article of faith back in 2014, before I had any clue we’d be dealing with wild crowds of thrilled reactionaries led by a reality TV character:
That is, an unexcited Biden vote counts exactly as much as an excited Trump vote. Yes, enthusiasm matters up to the point that it exists sufficiently to get the voter to the polls. But unenthusiastic voters trudge to presidential elections every year – the bar for whether one will cast a vote for a candidate is considerably lower than whether someone will profess to be enthusiastic about said candidate in a poll .
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