Daily roundup of research and analysis from The Globe and Mail’s market strategist Scott Barlow
“As we look to 2025, we are taking a more conservative approach to setting our expectations and calling for 5–10% total returns. We believe that valuations across the sector are attractive and there is a blue-sky scenario where REITs could outperform. However, our 2025 outlook does not incorporate much in the way of favourable movements in the 10-year yield, nor the impact of other potential sector catalysts. Instead, it largely reflects REIT distribution yields and forecast FFOPU growth.
“Regulated Utilities: We believe the sector represents a lower-risk way to play increasing demand for energy, whether that be from data centers, industrial development and/ or electrification. Renewables and Clean Energy: Macro demand fundamentals look favourable and supported by growing demand for electricity, but visibility is low heading into 2025 as investors wait for further clarification …. on the Inflation Reduction Act.
“The Bank of Canada cut interest rates by 50 bps on Wednesday, but there was no mortgage rate relief for new buyers. Yes, those with outstanding variable-rate mortgages, or HELOCs, have caught some significant relief this fall thanks to the BoC. But those rate cuts had already been priced into 3- and 5-year fixed mortgage rates . Indeed, Canadian 5-year GoC yields, which drive fixed mortgage rates, actually edged up on Wednesday.
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