Scientists unpack how rising temperatures will upend where avocados, cashews and coffee grow
Scientists at the Zurich University of Applied Sciences in Switzerland found that the ideal regions for growing coffee, cashews and avocados will either disappear, shrink or shift as global temperatures continue to rise. Theis pretty dim, at least if you are a fan of the more refined arabica beans. But avocado lovers in today’s cooler climes could find that by 2050, their favorite toast topping is a local product instead of an import.
By looking at the ideal growing conditions for each crop, including soil quality, rainfall and temperature ranges, the scientists were able to map the locations where those conditions are currently met. They then projected the local impacts of climate change in 2050 on three different emissions scenarios: meeting the Paris Agreement goal of less than 2°C warming since pre-industrial levels; reaching 2.5°C of warming; and our current trajectory with no emissions cuts.
In all three scenarios, coffee arabica trees fared badly, losing up to 50% of suitable growing areas in the major producing countries of Brazil, Vietnam, Indonesia, and Colombia, which account for 64% of global production. Other countries that are already growing coffee could increase production, but conditions there are equally expected to decline, however they were not a focus of the study. “Your coffee is at risk,” says lead author and environmental scientist.
Suitable areas for avocado plantations could see declines in today’s major producers, such as Mexico, the Dominican Republic, Peru, and Indonesia ; whereas the United States, Argentina, China, and East Africa could offer ideal growing conditions for both cashews and avocados as those higher latitudes warm up. But, the study cautions, warming temperatures alone are not enough.
It’s unlikely that the crops will all fail at once, says Grüter. Instead, the impacted farmers will experience a slow decline in yield, or an increase in disease. “Cultivating crops in [climate affected] regions might get more difficult, and it will need more effort to grow the crop and then at some point, it might just not be [profitable] anymore.”, the report concludes.
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