The World Is Headed To 70% BEV Sales By 2030
. In the latest version, the IEA predicts a 60% EV marketshare by 2030 in the main markets of China, EU, and USA. I think this unlikely.
Legacy auto does not like this development. Legacy automakers need the higher margins of electric vehicles to finance the phaseout of their ICE models. Regulations like the Euro-7 standard will make ICE vehicles more expensive, and shrinking demand will put pressure on prices. Closing factories and retraining workers is expensive. Stranded assets are unavoidable. But 100% electric competitors like Tesla and BYD do not have those problems, and will use price as a weapon to gain market share.
Taking this together, we will see the same mass and volume battery pack with double the capacity for half the price in 2030. To make this more clear, China is ahead of the EU+ in BEV market share. The Chinese central government has 2040 as a goal for 100% BEV. The EU mandates 100% BEV by 2035. What is currently the obstacle for most people — price and/or range and/or charging infrastructure — will not be a problem five years from now. The European and Chinese people are accustomed enough with BEVs to not see them as new, unknown technology anymore.
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