For Ukraine to hold the Russians back, let alone force them to retreat from the territory seized since the war began, will take heavier weapons
, has been humiliating. If the latest push makes headway, Russia’s dictator can claim vindication, while Ukraine will be left divided and disheartened. Russia might then choose to press its advantage, or simply “freeze” the conflict, leaving a devastated Ukraine to slide into dysfunction. Either way, Mr Putin would have prevented Ukraine from becoming the prosperous, pro-Western rebuke to his own rule that he so clearly fears.
It would be rash to assume that Russian forces will be as incompetent in the east as they previously were in the north, around the capital. For a start, they are now attacking from their home territory, not the temporary positions in Belarus they had taken up under the pretence of conducting “exercises”. Their supply lines will be shorter.
Ukraine needs more help. The Western response so far, particularly that of America, has been remarkable. A steady flow of weapons, especially portable anti-tank and anti-aircraft missiles, made a huge difference in the defence of Kyiv. But to hold the Russians back along a long front, let alone force them to retreat from the territory seized since the war began on February 24th, will take heavier weapons too: tanks, planes, artillery and an abundant supply of ammunition to go with them.
This is not a simple matter. Ukrainian forces use mainly Soviet-era weaponry. In the short term, they need more of it: things like
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