The dream of a “V-shaped recovery” died Thursday of complications from coronavirus. EricLevitz writes
If you reopen it, they won’t necessarily come. Photo: JLN Photography/Shutterstock The dream of a “V-shaped recovery” died Thursday of complications from coronavirus.
This scenario was always less likely than the bulls wanted it to be. True, the global economy had enjoyed a “V-shaped” recovery after the SARS outbreak in 2003. But SARS did not force most of the global economy to take a weeks-long hiatus. Even if Congress’s fiscal response had been flawless — which is to say, even if we gave every previously viable business the funds that it needed to weather the storm — widespread firm failures would still be inevitable.
But the biggest flaw in the V-shaped forecast was that it relied on a set of improbably rosy assumptions about the pandemic itself. Put simply, you can’t have a V-shaped recovery if your nation’s chart of new coronavirus cases looks like a bunch of Ws. Graphic: OpenTable/BloombergNews Baby boomers supply roughly one-third of all consumer spending in the United States. Regardless of whether public officials order a second shutdown, if coronavirus is spreading exponentially through major population centers, older Americans are going to shop less, and low-margin businesses dependent on sales volume will fail.
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